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Methodology & sources

Methodology & sources

All figures derive from primary official sources; nothing on this page is estimated by Corryk beyond the arithmetic described below. Facility supply is shown as counts only — no provider identities are used or displayed.

Demand

  • Population by age band and region: Eurostat’s Europop 2025 baseline regional projections, retrieved Aug 2026. Growth is the % change in the selected age band between 2025 and the selected horizon year.
  • United Kingdom: the four nations publish projections independently, and all four current vintages are 2022-based — England ONS subnational population projections (Jun 2025); Scotland NRS Population Projections for Scottish Areas (Sep 2025); Wales StatsWales/Welsh Government sub-national projections (Nov 2025); Northern Ireland NISRA sub-national projections. Each is produced by a separate agency on its own assumption set — the shared base year is convergence, not a common framework, and NRS has already moved its national headline to a 2024 base. Published single-year-of-age counts are summed to the age bands and to the mapped regions using the official ONS lookup; nothing is apportioned. Coverage is 174 of 179 UK regions: five Scottish regions (the three Highland splits, plus East/West Dunbartonshire with Helensburgh & Lomond, and the East/North Ayrshire mainland pairing) carry regional boundaries that cut through council areas, and no official sub-council-area correspondence exists — they are left blank on the demand lenses rather than allocated by share. The same boundary problem leaves those regions, and the Highlands & Islands and Ayrshire income cells, unfilled: ONS suppresses them in the current GDHI release.

Affluence

  • Net disposable household income per inhabitant (€), Eurostat regional household accounts, net balance, latest available year (typically 2024). NUTS-3 regions inherit their NUTS-2 parent value.

Supply

  • Pan-European: Eurostat regional structural business statistics — local units (establishments) in human health and in residential care, per region, 2023. UK from the equivalent ONS UK Business Counts (local units in the same two industry classes, which are defined identically in the UK and EU classifications; 2023, on matching boundaries). NUTS-3 regions inherit their region-wide value; densities are per 10,000 residents aged 65+, computed at the level the counts exist.
  • Registry detail — France: national FINESS register (May 2026, 102,939 establishments, département = NUTS-3, six sectors). United Kingdom: England — CQC directory (2026, 57,025 active locations); Scotland — Care Inspectorate datastore (Apr 2026, 759 elderly-care homes); Wales — StatsWales care-home statistics (1,018 adult homes; domiciliary care not spatially allocable and therefore blank); Northern Ireland — RQIA register (463 elderly homes, postcode-geocoded). Welsh domiciliary care stays blank: Care Inspectorate Wales registers all 787 domiciliary support services against seven health-board-aligned care areas and leaves the local-authority field deliberately empty for that service type alone — the register's own structural choice, not a gap we can close. All mapped to NUTS-3-2021. Germany — Destatis Krankenhausverzeichnis 2024 (1,880 hospitals) + Vorsorge/Reha directory, per Kreis = NUTS-3; care homes omitted (not published per Kreis since 2011 — a modeled allocation was rejected). Spain — REGCESS national registry (166,701 centres counted live per province, 885 hospitals) + CSIC residencia counts (Sept 2022).

Geography

  • Boundaries: Eurostat’s official regional geography, 2024 edition, at 1:10m generalisation. Urban–rural typology: Eurostat NUTS-3 classification. EU outermost territories are excluded from the map frame and rankings. The UK appears via ONS/NRS/StatsWales/NISRA data on frozen NUTS-2021 boundaries — note that UK official statistics have since migrated to a revised regional geography (2025) which merges the Highlands & Islands regions, which is why those specific regions are stranded here. Demand projections now cover all four nations (174 of 179 regions); registry-level facility detail is England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with the sector caveats noted above; 2025 baselines and income cover the whole UK bar the suppressed cells. The UK supply lens uses the ONS business-count basis (SIC/NACE-aligned). Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors, Protomaps.